| Racial and economic issues will begin to take centre stage as presidential hopefuls hit South Carolina and Nevada |
Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel filed this update from the campaign trail before heading south. I'm on the move again, to South Carolina, where this weekend we will see the first of the Southern primaries on the Republican side, while Nevada hosts the Democratic caucus.
We'll meet people from a much more diverse demographic than we've seen so far in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire.
To put that in context - both New Hampshire and Iowa are more than 90 per cent white. In both South Carolina and Nevada about a third of people are African American or Latino.
So what?
BLACK VOTES MATTER
As FiveThirtyEight put it, "The Presidential Race Is Finally Moving To States With Economic Problems".
Candidates have spent their time beefing up their black voter credentials; last week Bernie Sanders met with Reverend Al Sharpton, America's most prominent civil rights activist, and Hillary Clinton had the same meet-and-greet on Tuesday.
It's easy to see why - both candidates are using Obama's successful campaign in 2008 as a guide. The New York Times says Obama could not have won without unified black support.
Clinton has been heavily pushing her credentials on social and economic policy for African Americans and will aim to take over Barack Obama's black support base.
Some polls have had Clinton taking more than 80 per cent of the black vote but her rival Bernie Sanders is still on her heels, attracting a big portion of African Americans under 35.
Clinton should win in South Carolina on February 27 but this weekend in Nevada the Democrats are headed towards another nail-biter with Clinton and Sanders separated by 1 per cent in the most recent poll.
That's a problem for Clinton. She needs some momentum for a big win in South Carolina to offset the loss to Sanders in New Hampshire and to propel her to victory in the other Southern states.
TRUMP ON THE STUMP
After his victory in New Hampshire, Donald Trump has upped his number of campaign staff, held a rare press conference and been out campaigning in exhausting style in South Carolina where he's expected to continue his winning ways.
Meanwhile, he's also up in Nevada although it's worth noting that state is tricky to pick as it only became a caucus state in 2008 and there are very few polls there.
That said, consider this now rather prescient quote from a Politico article published a month ago:
"If Cruz wins Iowa on Feb. 1, as many expect he will given his campaign's organisational muscle and the endorsements he has landed from many of the state's top conservatives, Trump would need to finish a solid second to hold together his double-digit lead in New Hampshire."
Tick!
"Eight days later, Trump would likely need a win in New Hampshire to defend his frontrunner status heading into the Feb. 20 vote in South Carolina."
Tick!
"Winning South Carolina and avoiding embarrassment in the Nevada caucuses three days later would set Trump up to win big in the 12 Super Tuesday states, including six of South Carolina's southern neighbours, that vote on March 1. If Trump fends off Cruz on Super Tuesday, and establishment voters rally around a single candidate too late or too tepidly, Trump could land major delegate hauls in winner-take-all states like Florida and Ohio, which vote on March 15, and from there roll on to the nomination."
Let's call that a watching brief shall we?
And while we're on that topic, current President Barack Obama had an unusually pointed spray at Donald Trump, saying he doesn't expect him to become president.
Even so, Trump continues to dominate the polls and on Thursday was at 35 over Cruz at 17.5 in South Carolina.
Here's a snapshot or the various ways his Republican rivals have been campaigning this week:
AMERI-WHERE?
Marco Rubio released a new campaign ad earlier this week paying homage to Ronald Reagan's famous "It's Morning in America" ad from the 1984 campaign. However, more than 30 years later, Rubio's version of "Morning in America" looks very different.
That's probably because, as The Washington Post revealed, his new ad opens with a shot of the Vancouver skyline (which is actually in Canada). Jimmy Fallon quickly picked up the ad for late night fodder. But the candidates do seem a little geographically challenged - after all, Trump used images of the Moroccan, not the Mexican, border in his first TV ad.
BROTHERLY LOVE
Last week it was his mother and now it's his brother. After spending the early days of the campaign distancing himself from the "Bush" name, Jeb is pulling out all of the stops to hang in the presidential race.
President 43 joined the hopeful 45 on the stump in South Carolina this week ahead of the weekend's GOP primary. But don't get too used to seeing George W back in the spotlight. He told the media, "it's not going to be a habit".
JEB HAS GOT A GUN
But the most publicity for the Bush campaign came when Jeb tweeted a photo of a gun with his name engraved on it, captioned with the word, "America", on Tuesday. The photo went viral but Jeb also copped a lot of heat for packing heat.
BY THE NUMBERS
14 - The number of Supreme Court justices that have been confirmed during election years. Despite whatever Ted Cruz says, it has happened. However, 13 of those nominations were prior to World War II - a different era to the hostile Congress situation that the Obama Administration now faces.
This has become relevant due to the sudden death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on the weekend, which has made the 2016 election race all the more fraught - if it wasn't already complicated enough.
And the last word this week...
BALLIN' WITH BERNIE
Last week we saw Bernie shooting hoops before his big win in New Hampshire, which obviously led to vision of Bernie the quadruple sport athlete being released by CCTV from Vermont. Of course, this triggered a deep dive by some of the media to investigate his sporting pedigree.
In a couple of pieces this week, The Guardian explores first Bernie's abilities on the court back in the 1970s and then also how baseball informed his world views.
I'll drop you a line next week by which time three more polls will be decided in a still long list.
Batter up! |  | | | About this email You received this email because you are subscribed to ABC News email alerts. This message was sent to you at starnewsposting@gmail.com. Please add newslists@your.abc.net.au to your email address book to see images by default and stop the email being treated as spam. This email address is not monitored - Please don't reply to this email. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Add or remove topics | Unsubscribe | Contact Us |
| |
0 comments:
Post a Comment