| US election: Fear and loathing in the Las Vegas debate |
Are we there yet?
Almost, kids! The long (long, long) awaited United States presidential election is now just a little over two weeks away.
Excited much?
Once again I find myself delivering your weekly digest of all events election from somewhere in the skies. This time I'm sitting in seat 32F with a window overlooking the awesomeness of the Nevada desert having just departed Las Vegas and the third and final presidential debate.
And was that another eye-popper or what?
The candidates actually talked to their substantive policy positions on abortion, no-fly zones in Syria, the economy and tax reform among other serious issues. It was like a normal debate.
For about half an hour they didn't interrupt each other. Really.
But hey, it was too much to expect that the combative campaign dynamic could be held at bay for a whole 90 minutes, right?
When Hillary Clinton was confronted over the damaging WikiLeaks releases that have revealed the machinations within her campaign team and her private versus public policy positions, she turned the tables on Donald Trump, accusing him of fostering Russian hacks to influence the election outcome.
It was on:
Trump: "Putin, from everything I see, has no respect for this person."
Clinton: "Well, that's because he'd prefer to have a puppet as president of the United States."
Trump: "No puppet, no puppet."
Clinton: "And it's pretty clear you won't admit..."
Trump: "No, you're the puppet."
Clinton: "... that the Russians have engaged in cyber attacks against the United States of America, that you encouraged espionage against our people."
(Cue thought bubble of Vladimir Putin in his dressing gown with his feet up skolling a vodka.)
After that, the tone reverted to the interrupted style that we saw in the first two debates, though it has to be said that Fox News Sunday moderator Chris Wallace did a great job managing two people who clearly detest each other. (No handshakes again, by the way.)
In the end, the early substantive debate was overshadowed by Mr Trump's spectacular assertion that he may not accept the result of the November 8 election.
Yeah, I kind of buried the lede there.
Say what?
Yes, if you've been in Siberia, the basic news is that Mr Trump reckons the media is so slanted against him that it's deliberately cruelling his campaign, that dead people are voting (but only for Democrats), and that in general voter fraud is a thing.
(It's not much of a thing at all actually. See FactCheck.org explaining how few instances of voter fraud have been recorded.)
Nevertheless, he's reserving his judgement until he sees how polling day goes:
Moderator: "Are you saying you are not prepared to commit to that principle?"
Trump: "What I'm saying is, I'll tell you at the time. I'll keep you in suspense, OK?"
Clinton: "Well Chris, let me respond to that because it's horrifying. You know, every time Donald thinks things are not going in his direction, he claims whatever it is is rigged against him."
It's a bit unclear what this (could) mean in practice. After the debate, Mr Trump's surrogates said he would accept the result if he judges it to be fair.
His son Donald Junior told me and other reporters in the aptly named Spin Room:
"All we're asking for is a fair fight."
"You cut out the lies and the fraud, that's fine, if we lose fair and square, that's one thing, but the American people are sick of being lied to."
The upshot seems to be that Mr Trump will challenge the results in states where he thinks fraud is common (Pennsylvania and Illinois have been mentioned) if the results are close enough that a recount might make a difference.
At the very least, he's setting himself up to save face if he does lose, which is looking more and more likely with Mrs Clinton's average national lead now at 6.4 per cent.
That's a lead beyond anything that's ever been made up by any trailing candidate at this point in the race in modern history. More importantly, she's consolidating her lead in key battleground states and even traditionally red states are in play.
HE SAID
"I'll look at it at the time. I'm not doing anything now. I will look at it at the time." - Donald Trump when asked whether he'd accept the electoral result on November 8.
SHE SAID
"That's not the way our democracy works." - Hillary Clinton in response, after the debate.
HE ALSO SAID
"Wait 'til you see what happens in the coming years. Lots of luck, Hillary."
Did he accidentally concede?!
AND THEN HE SAID
"I promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election - if I win." - to supporters in his first post-debate rally in Ohio.
Anybody keeping up?
Speaking of transfer of power and democracy, it's probably a good time to revisit the letter George HW Bush wrote to Bill Clinton when he moved out of the White House.
WHERE'S BERNIE?
He's still filling up college campuses across the country — this time, in Flagstaff, Arizona (one of America's newest swing states).
PUPPETRY OF THE PUTIN
As discussed above, the Clinton-Trump exchange where they accused each other of being puppets to Mr Putin was quite a moment during the third debate.
Well, in the interim, Team Trump deleted this tweet from 2013:
SPEAKING OF PUPPETS...
A Trump supporter has made a Hillary Clinton (in prison) ventriloquist doll. Check it out.
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
Despite Mr Trump's refusal to commit to conceding if he loses on November 8, Barack Obama looks like he's got no interest in hanging around in the White House longer than his eight-year stint.
This week, Stephen Colbert helped him polish his resume ahead of his return to the job market.
But there are a few holes: why haven't you had a promotion in the past eight years? And where were you born?
HINDUS FOR TRUMP
This whole thing is just a lot to process. Check it out.
GOING, GOING, GONE
Mr Trump's childhood home in Queens, New York is headed to auction.
It went on the market back in July for $1.65 million, but maybe the owner is looking to capitalise on its former inhabitant's fame?
WHO ARE TRUMP SUPPORTERS?
The question continues but the answers — at least online — are somewhat surprising.
According to new research, around one-third of Mr Trump's supporters online are social media bots.
Analysing more than 9 million tweets spanning the first two debates, researchers found that a lot of the pro-Trump support came from automated accounts. Wow.
STICKING TO THE BRAND
They say any publicity is good publicity and the Trump empire continues to feel the effects of mixing politics with business.
The New York Times reports that customers are letting their money do the talking when it comes to Mr Trump products — from hotels, to golf courses, to Ivanka Trump's clothing line.
TRUMP TV?
Rumours abound that the Trump empire is setting its sights on a new right-wing media empire with his friends Roger Ailes (formerly of Fox News) and Stephen Bannon (formerly of Breitbart) if Mr T loses the election.
Stephanie March wrote this fascinating piece about what that world might look like here.
U-TURN IN UTAH
I know we've spoken about the little mentioned state a few times in this column, but have you seen the latest polls? Evan McMullin is now leading the polls in Utah.
Who? Well, glad you asked: he sells himself as the "only true conservative in the race" and you can check out our interview with the former CIA operative turned presidential hopeful here.
Really glad we did that interview when we did. Hey Evan, maaaate, remember us when you're appointed to the Presidency? (It's possible.)
BY THE NUMBERS 200,081,377 — The number of Americans registered to vote according to TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm.
To put that into context, the last time a Clinton was on the presidential ballot (1996), the electorate was 127.6 million people.
STRONGER TOGETHER - AND STRONGER THAN 84 OTHERS
The WikiLeaks email dump also revealed the slogans that didn't make the cut for Hillary Clinton's campaign. We ended up with "Stronger Together" but "Keep Moving" and "Climb Higher" sound a lot like a sporting brand, right?
VOTE CLINTON — FOUR WAYS
A sign of the changing face of America — the Houston Chronicle published its recommendation for Mrs Clinton in four languages:
BILL, MEET BILL
Just finally, back to Nevada where the final debate was held. It's in Mrs Clinton's column but in spite of all of the evidence in the form of polls, I continue to wonder if they fully reflect reality.
Nevada is one of those states where demographics are changing due to immigration, which partly explains what's happening politically. Arizona is another state affected by the same thing, as is Texas.
But there's a very resistant base that's pushing back.
Taxi driver Jim, a former army veteran and a self described "independent" voter, put it this way.
"Donald Trump will win Nevada," he told me with utter certainty.
Jim's complaints revolve around Hispanic immigration, Muslim refugees, the government spending money to support either or both, loss of jobs to either or both, and the general perception that America is controlled by free trade deals involving foreign governments rather than being in control of its own destiny.
All of these things, according to Jim, mean Americans are working hard and getting nowhere.
And as for Mr Trump's behaviour and language, in relation to women, for example?
"Oh, that's just locker room talk," says Jim.
He's just one guy, but it's a conversation I've been having a lot.
Yet, as the experts keep saying, if Mr Trump wins the election from here, not only would it be an extraordinary outcome in so many ways, it would be the biggest failure in modern polling history.
Lots to think about.
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