| US election: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton are heading into the home straight | By Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel
The race that stops a nation was last Tuesday, right?
Well, the one that will stop the world happens next Tuesday so hold onto those bowler hats and fascinators because the betting markets are tightening.
Drink anyone?
Donald Trump has come in from $4.50 a week ago to $2.90 today, and Hillary Clinton has drifted from an almost unbackable $1.20 to $1.40 in the past seven days.
It's fitting, isn't it, that after a campaign that's been topsy-turvy in so many ways we enter the straight with almost unreadable polls and an election that looks like being a photo finish?
Mmm hmm.
We'll go with polling averages for the sake of some sort of clarity through the flying mud.
Real Clear Politics has Mrs Clinton 2.2 points up as I write this, fivethirtyeight has her with a 66.3 per cent chance of winning.
That's a YUUUUUGE drop for Mrs Clinton since the third debate and while the balance of probabilities is still with her, Mr Trump DOES have a path to victory if things go his way on the day.
Fivethirtyeight has the all important electoral college at 293.8 for Clinton v Trump on 243 (remember: a candidate needs 270 to win), again a drastic fall compared to a couple of weeks ago when Mrs Clinton had a national lead of 5 to 7 points, was well over 300 based on the electoral college and looked like swinging at least the Senate if not the House.
To state the bleeding obvious, things have changed.
The House looks to now be completely out of reach. The Senate may be too.
So even if Mrs Clinton manages to get her nose over the line, it will be a difficult presidency.
Conversely, if Mr Trump wins it by a flying blond hair he's likely to have a Republican Congress, much as many of his colleagues may push back on his policies.
HOW DID WE GET HERE AGAIN?
Well, just to quickly recap, the polls were already tightening a bit towards the end of last week when the FBI dropped its bombshell that it's taking a look at some emails that may be relevant to the investigation into Mrs Clinton's use of a private server when she was secretary of state.
We still don't know what's in those emails and nor has the FBI confirmed whether any of them are new or whether they're duplicates of those that have already been looked at via other devices.
However, we do know that they're on a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, estranged husband of Mrs Clinton's closest aide Huma Abedin.
The FBI found them during a separate investigation into former congressman Weiner's alleged sexting of a 15-year-old girl.
I know. I KNOW.
There are various schools of thought on whether that explosive drop has caused the race to tighten to the extent that it has; maybe it was going that way anyway?
That said, Mrs Clinton already battles fundamental trust issues over the email saga and so-called pay-for-play innuendo related to use of her influence and resources as secretary of state and donations to the Clinton Foundation.
So those who dislike her will add it to their pile of cons. Others may see it as a deliberate scheme against her, so there's that too.
Teflon Don, meanwhile, having once again successfully navigated the rollercoaster cycle of this campaign, has all but put the vile Hollywood tape episode behind him and is now coasting through various battleground states urging people to vote to Make America Great Again.
SO, WHO'S GOING TO WIN?
Well, as outlined above the numbers still point to a Clinton victory but if she loses a couple of states that she expects to win, and he wins a couple that he expects to lose, things could get very interesting.
To again quote fivethirtyeight, there are a number of potential swings and roundabouts that could dictate the outcome.
Even so-called Clinton firewall states like New Hampshire are now looking very tight, which means if she loses one of those, she has to pick up a North Carolina or a Nevada instead. Get it?
Clear as the flying mud as we gallop down the home straight, not quite knowing who's in front or who's behind but just trying to stick on the pony for dear life until we hear the cheering crowd as we cross the line to glory.
In part it will come down to who votes.
Although around 25 million Americans have already done so in early voting (according to AP), getting out the vote on election day will be all important.
On that front the Clinton campaign has the advantage due to its highly organised machinery and its big bucket of money available for ads and promotion.
The other key thing to keep in mind — there's still time for something else to happen that will once again explode the model (and the pollsters' brains as well as ours).
I mean, it is 2016 right?
HE SAID
"The polls are saying we are going to win in Florida. Don't believe it! Pretend like we're slightly behind. You gotta vote!" – Mr Trump at a rally in Florida on Wednesday.
SHE SAID
"Sometimes the fate of the greatest nations comes down to single moments in time. This is one of those moments." – Hillary Clinton in a tweet on Monday.
WHERE'S BERNIE?
Besides working the campaign trail, Bernie has turned his attention to fighting intergalactic crime in the spirit of Halloween. Republican donor David Koch tweeted this dress-up pic on Monday, which promoted this Jedi-fighting-Bernie reply:
Hey Bern, lighten up!
THAT'S POTUS
As well as having Bern in her corner, Mrs Clinton has her collective of Super Surrogates including VP Joe Biden as well as First Lady Michelle Obama and her hubby Barack.
POTUS has been strikingly present during this campaign, criss-crossing the country trying to mobilise voters for Hillary, especially African Americans and millennials.
This week he's been to Ohio, North Carolina and Florida and said:
"You have to stand up, reject cynicism, reject fear, reject meanness, choose hope. Choose hope, choose hope, choose hope, choose hope, choose hope. Vote, vote, vote!"
Oh and speaking of POTUS: here's your cuteness fix for the week.
While Australia was at the Melbourne Cup, America was being spooky. Well, even more spooky than usual.
A few lucky kids got to spend Halloween at the White House with Barack and Michelle who handed out candy to the trick or treaters.
This kid dressed as a lame duck probably takes the cake though:
And while we're on the topic of costumes, Trump supporters were playing dress-up on Halloween Monday too:
This one's not a costume though:
EVERYONE'S A WINNER
Mrs Clinton's Chicago Cubs broke a 108-year championship drought on Thursday night (awesome game, by the way) and HRC was captured watching the victory after a rally in Arizona.
Her reactions are priceless:
Looks like me watching the Bombers beat Carlton.
I'm serious.
THE TRIBE HAS SPOKEN
Republicans have been flip-flopping for months about who they will vote for. Well, the time is finally here. House Speaker Paul Ryan voted for the GOP nominee. Even Ted Cruz said he voted for Mr Trump on Monday.
However, former presidential hopeful John Kasich decided to throw it back and write in "John McCain":
LOOKING FOR WORK
Vice-President Joe Biden is also staring down the barrel of unemployment when he finishes up eight years as Mr Obama's right-hand man.
Right now, he's busy working the campaign trail for Mrs Clinton – and it's rumoured he may be tapped to become the next Secretary of State – but he also made his pitch to be sponsored by Ray-Ban in a rally in Florida.
It's hard to argue against.
Speaking of cool – check out Mr Trump giving RNC chairman Reince Priebus a fist bump on his way into a rally this week.
GO LONG
For voters trying to de-stress during the final stretch – head to the Alpine Target Golf in Longview Texas, where golfers can take swings at portraits of Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton.
NEW YORK FINISH LINE
Fittingly, both candidates will host election night parties in the Big Apple. The New York Times has a great profile about how the two candidates used to be friends – what a difference a decade makes!
So how many days do we have to go again?
I'm riding the last stretch of the trail with Donald and Hillary through North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and into New York for election day.
This time next week, the race will be won.
Well, unless there's a final twist, that is.
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