'Besieged on all sides': ABC commentators give their election analysis

Australia Votes 2016
This is the current state of play
Good afternoon,

We won't have an election result until at least tomorrow, but in the meantime here's the pick of the ABC's analysis.

As you can see below, the focus is firmly on the Prime Minister as the fallout from Saturday night continues.


1. Barrie Cassidy can't see the Coalition securing a majority

According to the host of Insiders, "We're well and truly in hung parliament territory."

"The campaign ended where it started in terms of support for the two parties," he said. "You can't blame particular issues within the campaign. [Malcolm Turnbull] blew it between January and June."

Cassidy sees the major parties getting 72 seats apiece, with crossbenchers holding the balance of power.

He says we should have a greater understanding of the election outcome by Wednesday night, though one or two seats might still be in play.




2. Paula Matthewson says Turnbull is a leader besieged on all sides

The columnist for The Drum says it is difficult to see a safe path for the Prime Minister through the minefield that he alone has created.

"If this election was about anything, it was about securing Turnbull's authority; not only a mandate to pass his more contentious policies, but also to legitimise Turnbull's replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader," she writes.

"Now Turnbull must do what he can without either."


3. Ian Verrender says the warning signs were there, we just ignored them

The ABC's business editor says the real winners from the 2016 election were independents and fringe parties, including the likes of Pauline Hanson.

"The old divide between Left and Right has begun to blur, allegiances are dissolving and the political establishment, which for years turned a blind eye to the growing undercurrent of resentment, now faces its very own moment of truth," he writes.

Verrender says from an economic perspective "the weekend result is nothing short of a disaster".

"Neither major party enunciated the threats facing the Australian economy during the next decade," he said.




4. Annabel Crabb says the election has gone from win-win to lose-lose for Turnbull

She says Coalition unity is simultaneously of maximum importance and minimum achievability right now.

"There is no chance, even on the most optimistic reading of the vote count, that Malcolm Turnbull will get enough MPs to get the industrial relations bills through a joint sitting of the parliament," she writes.

"And the Senate voting reforms, which were designed to deliver an Upper House with fewer oddballs, seem - like a cheapskate fumigation - to have permitted exactly the opposite result: the pests are back, and this time they've brought their friends."

"... Having royally screwed the crossbench senators, Malcolm Turnbull is thus now in the awkward position of having to make friends with them."


Want more? Check out our Australia Votes homepage for all the latest election fallout news and analysis.

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